Archive - Threading the Needle

AI & Jobs: Two Phases Of Automation

AI labor impacts will look normal before they look existential. This creates a timing problem for policy development.

just now •

A Moving Target

Why we might not be quite ready to comprehensively regulate AI, and why it matters.

Jul 1 •

June 2025

The Awareness Gap

AI middle powers underestimate the pace of progress. Global volatility could follow.

Jun 17 •

AI & Jobs: Politics without Policy

Political support mounts - for a policy platform that does not yet exist.

Jun 5 •

May 2025

April 2025

Powerless Predictions

Sophisticated AI predictions fail to affect policy strategy. Changing that requires taking risks.

Apr 24 •

Homeostatic AI Progress

Very fast AI progress faces a self-regulating dynamic: Greater speed leads to more organizational strains, compute trade-offs and societal backlash.

Apr 7 •

March 2025

The Early Death of International AI Governance

Why the stars might never align on preventative international governance of AI, and what to do instead.

Mar 31 •

Three Notes on Dean Ball's 'Private AI Governance'

In this shorter piece, I discuss a recent proposal's limitations regarding transformative AI systems, securitised environments, and the role of…

Mar 21 •

Against Wake-Up Calls

Big-ticket AI impacts might soon reshape AI policy. No one is prepared for that, but some people think they are.

Mar 18 •

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts