Archive - Threading the Needle

AI & Jobs: Two Phases Of Automation

AI labor impacts will look normal before they look existential. This creates a timing problem for policy development.

2 hrs ago •

A Moving Target

Why we might not be quite ready to comprehensively regulate AI, and why it matters.

Jul 1 •

June 2025

The Awareness Gap

AI middle powers underestimate the pace of progress. Global volatility could follow.

Jun 17 •

AI & Jobs: Politics without Policy

Political support mounts - for a policy platform that does not yet exist.

Jun 5 •

May 2025

April 2025

Powerless Predictions

Sophisticated AI predictions fail to affect policy strategy. Changing that requires taking risks.

Apr 24 •

Homeostatic AI Progress

Very fast AI progress faces a self-regulating dynamic: Greater speed leads to more organizational strains, compute trade-offs and societal backlash.

Apr 7 •

March 2025

The Early Death of International AI Governance

Why the stars might never align on preventative international governance of AI, and what to do instead.

Mar 31 •

Three Notes on Dean Ball's 'Private AI Governance'

In this shorter piece, I discuss a recent proposal's limitations regarding transformative AI systems, securitised environments, and the role of…

Mar 21 •

Against Wake-Up Calls

Big-ticket AI impacts might soon reshape AI policy. No one is prepared for that, but some people think they are.

Mar 18 •

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