> on the left, people disagree with the Silicon Valley-associated premise of fast progress toward genuinely transformative AI – much more on all this here
Related concern and another reason to expect a bubble burst: public perception of AI progress might differ greatly from actual progress as AI advancements become increasingly opaque.
I think we saw some of this with GPT-5 - many were disappointed despite capabilities roughly in line with the trends.
This will probably get much worse. When frontier AIs can perform difficult tasks that would take a human expert an entire day, I imagine that an increase to two days will be almost imperceptible to most people.
Impressive forward thinking - thanks for spelling it out!
While I am not an expert in policy and PR, I can definitely relate to the market dynamics after 10 years working and investing in blockchain/crypto space. Many similarities (besides obv differences as well), maybe worth studying to compare/learn. Happy to collab if helpful!
Additional thinkings based on this experience:
- 10+ years timeframe is a loooong time relatively to the progress and investment velocity - bubble can burst and reappear several times within that time.
- And political support can turn 180 degrees, as seen in US crypto policy. But also important to not limit itself to the US (political/investment) perspective for a global tech trend, as companies can leverage geo-arbitrage.
Great analysis as always!
I think you're missing a link here?
> on the left, people disagree with the Silicon Valley-associated premise of fast progress toward genuinely transformative AI – much more on all this here
Thank you! Fixed - it was supposed to link to this post of mine on safety politics and its many hurdles from spring.
https://writing.antonleicht.me/p/ai-safety-policy-cant-go-on-like
Related concern and another reason to expect a bubble burst: public perception of AI progress might differ greatly from actual progress as AI advancements become increasingly opaque.
I think we saw some of this with GPT-5 - many were disappointed despite capabilities roughly in line with the trends.
This will probably get much worse. When frontier AIs can perform difficult tasks that would take a human expert an entire day, I imagine that an increase to two days will be almost imperceptible to most people.
Impressive forward thinking - thanks for spelling it out!
While I am not an expert in policy and PR, I can definitely relate to the market dynamics after 10 years working and investing in blockchain/crypto space. Many similarities (besides obv differences as well), maybe worth studying to compare/learn. Happy to collab if helpful!
Additional thinkings based on this experience:
- 10+ years timeframe is a loooong time relatively to the progress and investment velocity - bubble can burst and reappear several times within that time.
- And political support can turn 180 degrees, as seen in US crypto policy. But also important to not limit itself to the US (political/investment) perspective for a global tech trend, as companies can leverage geo-arbitrage.
💯